Current Conditions:

Lake Mead’s current elevation is now 4.03 feet below the elevation of Lake Mead in July 2014 and 91.92 feet below the historical July elevation of Lake Mead.

Lake Powell’s current elevation is now 4.99 feet ABOVE the elevation of Lake Powell in July 2014 but is still 28.27 feet below the historical July elevation of Lake Powell.

 

24-Month Study:

Lake Mead

Reclamation’s forecast in its July 2015 24-Month Study shows unchanged projected elevations for Lake Mead relative to projections in its June 2015 24-Month Study. Reclamation still forecasts about an 8-foot cushion for the projected elevation of Lake Mead for January 2016 relative to the 1,075-foot shortage trigger and about a 4-foot cushion for the projected elevation of Lake Mead for January 2017 relative to the 1,075-foot shortage trigger.

The continuing trend of progressively lower “highs” in successive winter elevations and lower “lows” in successive summer elevations belies a continuing downward trend in Lake Mead elevations.  There still looks like there is a reasonable chance that 2017 is looking like the first time shortages may be triggered in the Lower Basin.

Actual Lake Mead elevations in 2013 and 2014 generally ran below forecasted levels in January 2013 and January 2014.  The 24-month study for August 2014 projected even lower Lake Mead elevations than earlier forecasts.  Lake Mead elevation is forecasted to fall below the trigger for shortages in late spring 2015 but rebound above the trigger before January 2016—this would avoid a shortage declaration for 2016.

Lake Powell

Reclamation’s forecast in its July 2015 24-Month Study shows increased projected elevations for Lake Powell relative to projections in its August 2015 24-Month Study.  The trend of an increase in Lake Powell elevations has stabilized.  Actual Lake Powell elevations in 2013 were generally running below forecasted levels in January 2013. January 2014 forecasts were significantly lower than January 2013 forecasts. August 2014 forecasts of Lake Powell Elevation increased significantly in the latter part of the forecast period.   The June and July 2015 forecasts are below the August 2014 forecast.  The trend of progressively higher “highs” in successive June elevations and higher “lows” in successive March elevations is broken.  Have Lake Powell elevations reached their peak.  Is there a new declining trend?

 

 

Monthly Historical Average:

Lake Mead

Elevations in 2015 are lower than in 2014 and even further below historical average elevations.

Lake Powell

Elevations in 2015 are higher than in 2014 but remain significantly below historical average elevations.