Have A Comment?

We would like to invite you to write a guest post for the Hydrowonk Blog … more

CBT Water Market Indicator: Prices Continue to Climb

Because the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District (“Northern Water”) established simple mechanisms to allow trading of Colorado-Big Thompson (“CBT”) Project water, CBT units have been trading widely for nearly 60 years. The CBT Project is a federal water diversion project that brings water from the Colorado River headwaters on the West Slope to the Big-Thompson River, a tributary to the South Platte River, to provide a supplemental source of water to Colorado’s Front Range—supplying 925,000 people and 640,000 acres of irrigated agricultural lands in Northern Colorado.

The project facilities and water rights are owned by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, but Northern Water, a quasi-municipal entity and political subdivision of the State of Colorado, manages the project.

The average prices for CBT units continued to increase during the second quarter of 2017 from $26,500/unit in January to $27,289/unit in June and have returned to near the level revealed in the third quarter of 2016 when an auction drove the average price up to $27,301/unit in September. The second quarter of 2016, had average prices ranging from $25,500/unit to $25,833/unit. (See chart).

During the 2nd quarter of 2017 a total of 333 units changed hands, with monthly volumes ranging from 26 units to 207 units. This is a decrease in volume when compared to the first quarter of 2017 where 444 units changed hands. The second quarter of 2016 saw transfers total 648 units. (See chart)

The Northern Water Board of Directors approves transfers of CBT units and sets quotas to determine the yield of each unit. The project has 310,000 units. The board sets an initial quota each November and revisits it the following April. The April quota allows all CBT Project water users to plan for their water supply needs. The board began setting an initial quota in November 2001 to allow municipal and domestic water users access to CBT water in the winter months without incurring a negative balance when the quota is set in April. The board considers both the availability of water and the water needs in the region when it determines the quota. If conditions warrant, the board will announce a supplemental quota. The annual quota has a historic average of 74% (0.74 AF/unit). At its April 2017 meeting, the Northern Water Board of Directors increased the quota to 80% from the initial quota of 50% set in October.

The Board considered hydrologic conditions and input from water users in setting the April quota. The region experienced a particularly dry March, with precipitation 27% below normal, and the Board ultimately decided to make the water available since they have sufficient supplies to do so.

“It’s dry, it really is,” said Board President Mike Applegate. “The C-BT Project was created to provide a supplemental supply and we have the reserves to do that.”

CBT activity has decreased significantly since the late 1990s and early 2000s, with total annual volumes now coming in at one-third to one-half the annual volumes traded in those earlier years. According to local water brokers, development and a shift in the demographics of who owns CBT units have caused this change in market activity. Past drought conditions and uncertainty over water supplies may also be playing a role. When the CBT project began operating in 1957, 85% of the units were owned by agricultural water users. Now agricultural users own only 30% of the units. In addition, there are now fewer and larger agricultural operations—so the supply is limited to stronger hands that generally do not sell, except for estate settlements and retirement.

With the tightening of units available for sale, volume is dropping and prices are climbing. How high will prices go?

(For more extensive background on the history of the CBT Project, see “Trading Federal Project Water: The Colorado–Big Thompson Project,” WS, October 1990).


Written by Marta L. Weismann